Peer-Reviewed Articles
2019. "Why Underachievers Dominate Secret Police Organizations: Evidence from Autocratic Argentina." American Journal of Political Science, online first (with Christian Gläßel) [Replication files][Blog post].
2018. "Ideology and State Terror: How Officer Beliefs Shaped Repression during Argentina's 'Dirty War'." Journal of Peace Research, 55(2): 206-221 [Replication files].
2014. "Forecasting the Risk of Extreme Massacres in Syria." European Review of International Studies, 1(2): 50-68 (with Gerald Schneider, Anna Nöh, and Aaron Clauset) [updated version][cited by Nassim Taleb and his co-author].
2013. "Die Blutspur des Vetoes: Eine Prognose zur Gefahr von extremen Massakern in Syrien." Zeitschrift für Friedens- und Konflikforschung, 2(1): 6-31 (with Gerald Schneider, Anna Nöh, and Aaron Clauset).
2018. "Ideology and State Terror: How Officer Beliefs Shaped Repression during Argentina's 'Dirty War'." Journal of Peace Research, 55(2): 206-221 [Replication files].
2014. "Forecasting the Risk of Extreme Massacres in Syria." European Review of International Studies, 1(2): 50-68 (with Gerald Schneider, Anna Nöh, and Aaron Clauset) [updated version][cited by Nassim Taleb and his co-author].
2013. "Die Blutspur des Vetoes: Eine Prognose zur Gefahr von extremen Massakern in Syrien." Zeitschrift für Friedens- und Konflikforschung, 2(1): 6-31 (with Gerald Schneider, Anna Nöh, and Aaron Clauset).
Policy Paper
2018. "The Return of the Military." GIGA Focus Latin America, 7: 1-11 (with Sabine Kurtenbach) [in German][in English].
Blog Post
2018. "Making Sense of Trump’s War against the Islamic State." Political Violence at @ Glance [Blog post].
